Cross-border exposure of Canada’s fruit and vegetable supply to future weather extremes

Abstract. Fruit and vegetable supply is essential for a healthy diet, yet the exposure of supply chains to climate-related conditions is often overlooked, particularly when sourcing crosses national borders. We develop provincial-scale food flows for 18 fruits and 16 vegetables using average 2018–2022 production and trade data, including estimated interprovincial flows and derived products. We then link these recent sourcing patterns to changes in maximum five-day rainfall, consecutive dry days, days below 0 °C, and days above 35 °C from +1 °C to +3 °C global mean warming relative to 1850–1899. Across Canada’s supply, 43 % of fruit and 19 % of vegetables are sourced from regions projected to experience at least 15 additional days above 35 °C, 19 % and 8 % from regions with at least five additional consecutive dry days, 31 % and 9 % from regions with at least a 5 % decrease in maximum five-day rainfall, and 7 % and 2 % from regions with at least 10 fewer days below 0 °C, respectively. Exposure is concentrated in specific supply chains, including lettuce sourced from California and Arizona and avocados from Mexico, and varies across provinces because of differences in sourcing portfolios. This exposure assessment holds recent sourcing patterns constant and does not estimate crop-yield losses, future trade adjustments, prices, or supply disruptions. It provides a basis for identifying the most exposed commodity, province, and source regions that may warrant more detailed impact and adaptation assessment.