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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">LSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Land Systems Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">LSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Land Systems Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/ls-2026-4</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Cross-border exposure of Canada&amp;rsquo;s fruit and vegetable supply to future weather extremes</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bajaj</surname>
<given-names>Kushank</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1002-4669</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ramankutty</surname>
<given-names>Navin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3737-5717</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mehrabi</surname>
<given-names>Zia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9574-0420</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Meyfroidt</surname>
<given-names>Patrick</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1047-9794</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dowlatabdi</surname>
<given-names>Hadi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain)</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique F.R.S.-FNRS</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>01</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Kushank Bajaj et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://ls.copernicus.org/preprints/ls-2026-4/">This article is available from https://ls.copernicus.org/preprints/ls-2026-4/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://ls.copernicus.org/preprints/ls-2026-4/ls-2026-4.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://ls.copernicus.org/preprints/ls-2026-4/ls-2026-4.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Fruit and vegetable supply is essential for a healthy diet, yet the exposure of supply chains to climate-related conditions is often overlooked, particularly when sourcing crosses national borders. We develop provincial-scale food flows for 18 fruits and 16 vegetables using average 2018&amp;ndash;2022 production and trade data, including estimated interprovincial flows and derived products. We then link these recent sourcing patterns to changes in maximum five-day rainfall, consecutive dry days, days below 0 &amp;deg;C, and days above 35 &amp;deg;C from +1 &amp;deg;C to +3 &amp;deg;C global mean warming relative to 1850&amp;ndash;1899. Across Canada&amp;rsquo;s supply, 43 % of fruit and 19 % of vegetables are sourced from regions projected to experience at least 15 additional days above 35 &amp;deg;C, 19 % and 8 % from regions with at least five additional consecutive dry days, 31 % and 9 % from regions with at least a 5 % decrease in maximum five-day rainfall, and 7 % and 2 % from regions with at least 10 fewer days below 0 &amp;deg;C, respectively. Exposure is concentrated in specific supply chains, including lettuce sourced from California and Arizona and avocados from Mexico, and varies across provinces because of differences in sourcing portfolios. This exposure assessment holds recent sourcing patterns constant and does not estimate crop-yield losses, future trade adjustments, prices, or supply disruptions. It provides a basis for identifying the most exposed commodity, province, and source regions that may warrant more detailed impact and adaptation assessment.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="27"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada</funding-source>
<award-id>#RGPIN-2017-04648</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada</funding-source>
<award-id>RGPIN-2023-05236</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Canada Research Chairs</funding-source>
<award-id>CRC-2021-00053</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs4">
<funding-source>University of British Columbia</funding-source>
<award-id>Four Year Doctoral Fellowship</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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